Key events
Kick-off!
The final 90 minutes of Group D are under way…
The anthems are sung with gusto, the crowd is full of expectant supporters, all that remains is the football.
The two besuited coaches embrace on the touchline like they’re meeting at an Italian American wedding. Alfaro, the senior, silver hair swept back; Popovic, the junior, black shirt and tie to go with his black suit, eliminating the possibility of underarm sweat patches.
Out stride the two sides into the Californian sunshine. Paraguay, ranked 37th in the world, are in their traditional red and white stripes with red and white trim. Australia, ranked 26th in the world, are in gold jerseys, green shorts, white socks.
The two sides are in the tunnel ready for combat. The knockout stage is within touching distance.
Andy Lane has low hopes. “This is going to give England v Ghana good competition for the boring boot: the ballon d’merde.”
Bluffer’s Guide: Convince your workmates/classmates/pubmates that you know what you’re on about by…
… going deep on Paraguay. They were rubbish against the USA and somehow pinched a 1-0 win over Turkey despite playing the second half with just 10 men and ending with an XG of 0.32 v 2.12.
They were ultra-defensive during CONMEBOL qualification, scoring just 14 times in 18 matches, but conceding only 10 along the way (the same as Argentina, and bettered only by Ecuador).
Their form is difficult to read. They have lost four of their past eight matches, but amongst that are victories over Mexico, Greece, and Turkey.
La Albirroja have regained their historic strengths: an almost unbreakable defence and excellent structural balance. They do not apply a high press; instead, they press in midfield, which can become a dangerous trap for opponents.
Thanks to their tactical discipline, they consistently frustrate the opposition’s creativity. While rivals become disorganised in attack, Paraguay strike with rapid transitions and clinical accuracy. They usually set up in a 4-2-3-1 during midfield pressing phases, but drop into a compact 4-4-2 when defending deep.
Paraguay are not a high-scoring or overly attacking side, but they rely on effectiveness and efficiency to get results.
David Mellinger is hoping for an Australian win, or a Paraguay rout… for Scotland’s sake. “Scotland need Paraguay to lose by two, or Australia to lose by four, to bump one of these teams below them in the 3rd-place table. A win by four is unlikely, but Australia beating Paraguay by two really seems possible.”
Bluffer’s Guide: Convince your workmates/classmates/pubmates that you know what you’re on about by…
… telling them Australian central defender Harry Souttar is 198cm, making him the 13th tallest player at the World Cup. His height is a massive advantage at set pieces, so expect him to be a major goal threat for the Socceroos. He already has 11 international goals from just 40 caps, a strong scoring record for a defender.
Today’s referee is the experienced Clement Turpin. The Frenchman took charge of the 2022 Uefa Champions League final, and has already overseen England v Croatia at this World cup.
Bluffer’s Guide: Convince your workmates/classmates/pubmates that you know what you’re on about by…
… referencing The Disgrace of Gijon. This was a match at the 1982 World Cup when (like Paraguay and Australia today) the two teams went into the final match of the group phase knowing a mutually beneficial scoreline would see both teams progress.
The problem was not just with the cynicism shown by Germany and Austria; it was compounded by its unapologetic nature and the identity of the victims. Algeria had the charm of underdogs, played lovely football, and were from a developing football continent. West Germany and Austria had not only killed Bambi; they had sent a video of the slaying around the world and cackled maniacally at the end of that video.
Today’s match is taking place at Levi’s Stadium, known during World Cup 2026 as the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium. The primary tenants of the 70,000 seat arena are the San Francisco 49ers in the NFL, and it was they who instigated the construction of the venue, which was completed in 2014. It has already hosted the Super Bowl this year.
Conditions are glorious. It is approaching golden hour in northern California, the skies are blue, temperatures are around 20C, and the rain that has disrupted the eastern seaboard is nowhere in sight.
Jack Snape is the Guardian’s man with the Socceroos, and he sets the scene from Santa Clara.
Permutations are not something the Socceroos are considering. “Look, we haven’t thought about the game in that way at all,” Popovic said. “We’re going into the game tomorrow to win. I expect they’ll be doing the same.”
Paraguay coach Gustavo Alfaro described the match as a “final” for his team. “Of course we understand we are the team ranked lower by Fifa, but that doesn’t mean I feel inferior to them,” he said.
Caitlin Cassidy
At 11am on a wet Friday morning, pubs in Sydney’s inner west would usually be shut, or home to a couple of stragglers. Not so today, as hundreds of Socceroos fans pack in front of TV screens ahead of Australia’s crucial game against Paraguay.
It’s the first time in history a Socceroos World Cup game is being played entirely within Aest working hours, and there are a few punters drinking pints with their laptops out at the Golden Barley in Enmore in a sea of yellow and green for what some are calling the ‘Great Socceroos Sickie’.
Small business owners Jamie Hayman and his brother, Rick Hayman are among them. Rick owns HXD built construction in the inner west and is plugging away on his laptop at 11am with his staff.
Rick says he’s been supporting the Socceroos “forever”.
“It unites the community. That’s what you notice. Pubs get filled up, there’s all the talk around town, it’s really good to see.”
Jamie says this is the first time he and his brother have come out early to a pub to support the Socceroos, and says he can “definitely see more support” for the team.
Asked what time they’ll shut the laptops, he replies: “Probably kickoff”.
Socceroos analysis: We won’t know until the teams line up, but I assume this means regular left fullback Aziz Behich will line up at right wingback for Australia. Further forward Irankunda and Volpato will play as split strikers, using their pace and dribbling skills to take the game on without overly concerning themselves with support flooding forward from midfield.
Paraguay analysis: Star man Julio Enciso offers the greatest threat to Australia and he starts up front as the foil to target man Gabriel Avalos.
Bluffer’s Guide: Convince your workmates/classmates/pubmates that you know what you’re on about by…
… telling them Paraguay’s greatest footballer was actually a goalkeeper, and he scored 67 times during his career, including eight for his country. Don’t forget his name: Jose Luis Chilavert.
“Don’t think I remember refreshing a lineup pre-match so frantically, willing the description to change from Predicted to Confirmed,” emails Chris Paraskevas. “If my nerves are this bad now, I’m probably gonna have to push the third coffee back to half-time at least.
The lineup makes sense, albeit I’d have preferred Geria for solidity and am a little worried at Herrington starting now.
This really feels like foreign territory for us, as we’ve never had our destiny so firmly in our hands at a World Cup. So many factors are in our favour here: the mathematics of the third-place table; Almiron’s suspension; the toll of the Turkey game on the Paraguayans; the potential for Mates Rates; the absence of a witch doctor working against us.
However, this presents its own unique set of psychological challenges because for once we are the favourite. There must be a clarity of thinking throughout the staff and players: the goal has to be a victory, using a degree of street smarts, caution and absolute concentration.
These things are easier said than done and have tripped up bigger nations and better teams at World Cups. You need to earn it, because it is rarely handed to you.
But we should be excited too, because this World Cup is delivering big time for Aussies: we get to watch the Socceroos in a crunch World Cup game on a Friday at midday.
PS. Don’t bottle it Popa – I’ll never forgive you.”
One thing is for sure, it will be an enormous moment for the spiritual home of football on Australian TV: SBS.
The World Cup clash between the Socceroos and Paraguay represents a potential milestone for Australian football, as the team chase qualification for the knockout rounds for only the third time. For the broadcaster SBS, its significance may be even greater.
The match is the culmination of 11 straight men’s World Cup tournaments, and a commitment that stretches back to Mexico 1986. Its audience is expected to go close to – or exceed – the network’s record for any Socceroos match or World Cup fixture.
“It’s very likely that this match will have the largest audience ever for an SBS broadcast from the World Cup, which is a credit not only to our current broadcast team but to the giants whose shoulders they stand on,” said the SBS director of sport Ken Shipp.
A note of caution to the Australians unused to tournament football who may be tuning in today: this is unlikely to be the spectacle that converts you to the beautiful game. This is a match all about the ends, not the means.
Neither team is especially motivated by aesthetics to begin with, but today more than ever they will not give a second thought to milking the clock, slowing the play down, exaggerating contact, overdramatising injuries, and doing whatever possible to avoid the concession of goals. Avoiding defeat is all that matters, not how that is accomplished.
Loss aversion is present in both starting XIs with Paraguay shifting from a back four to a back five and replacing the suspended playmaker Miguel Almiron with an extra defender.
Paraguay XI
Three changes for Gustavo Alfaro, but also crucially a system switch from a back four to a back five.
Out: Pitta, Almiron, Alonso
In: Avalos, Maidana, Velazquez
Paraguay XI (5-3-2): 12 Gill; 2 Velazquez, 3 Alderete, 15 Gomez, 4 Caceres, 26 Maidana; 23 Galarza, 14 Cubas, 8 Gomez; 21 Avalos, 19 Enciso.
Australia XI
Blimey, just the SIX changes from Tony Popovic following the defeat to the USA.
Out: Jacob Italiano, Cam Burgess, Paul Okon-Engstler, Mat Leckie, Nishan Velupillay, Mo Toure.
In: Lucas Herrington, Aziz Behich, Jackson Irvine, Nestory Irankunda, Cristian Volpato, Connor Metcalfe
Australia (5-3-2): 18 Beach; 5 Bos, 25 Herrington, 19 Souttar, 3 Circati, 16 Behich; 22 Irvine, 8 Metcalfe, 13 O’Neill, 20 Volpato; 17 Irankunda
Jack Snape
The San Francisco Bay Area stadium, formerly – and soon to be known again as – Levi’s Stadium offers a different experience to the venues in Vancouver and Seattle fans.
Those stadiums were on each city’s fringe, requiring only a short walk from the bars and pubs of downtown.
Here in Santa Clara, on the south-eastern corner of the Bay, what the area gives up in proximity it gains in parking.
So it was appropriate the Australian fans met at Yellow Lot 5, an empty carpark about 20 minutes walk from the stadium, to march all the way to the stadium gates two hours before the match.
There appeared to be more than the 10,000 estimated at the previous matches, and the yellow fans have now begun to take up their position behind the southern goal.
Yellow Lot 5 was left quiet again, the only evidence left of the Australian visit were hundreds of empty bottles and cans.
Ok, now we can turn our focus squarely on Paraguay v Australia.
Apologies from the outset to any fans of Los Guaraníes that might be tuning in, this is going to be a green and gold flavoured page from now on.
It is Friday morning on the east coast of Australia with the match kicking-off at midday in Sydney and Melbourne. The optimal long-lunch timing has led to the Socceroos’ assistant coach to assert – with an unnervingly straight face – that he expected the prime minister to declare a public holiday, and for the team’s third reserve right back to encourage schools to broadcast the match in classrooms.
Friday’s match against Paraguay marks the first time a Socceroos World Cup game is being played entirely in Australia’s traditional working hours – and if they aren’t dropped entirely, tools will at least come to a standstill.
It’s being described by the Socceroos fan group Active Support, in a viral social media post featuring a picture of Bob Hawke, as the “Great Australian Socceroos Sickie”.
Instead of waking at an ungodly graveyard hour, fans are being graced with a noon AEST kick-off, perfectly primed for a lunch break that evolves smoothly into the weekend.
Japan finish second behind the Dutch, while Sweden will also make the round of 32 as one of the best third-placed teams.
The Netherlands have topped Group F, completing a strong opening phase with a comfortable victory over the already eliminated Tunisia.
Jonathan Liew considers the impact of this World Cup being the most individual > collective in tournament history.
… something does feel qualitatively different this summer: a tectonic shift driven partly by events on the pitch and partly at the behest of the industry itself. This is a World Cup swimming in star names, and never have those star names been so unapologetically, unquestioningly invoked. France do not beat Iraq; instead Kylian Mbappé throws down the gauntlet to Erling Haaland, Harry Kane and the rest. According to Google, Miroslav Klose’s goals record has been searched more at this tournament than in the year he set it. At times the group phase has felt like an inconvenient distraction from the real business of the Golden Boot race. (Can Lionel Messi lift the one trophy he hasn’t won yet?)
Socceroos supporters are on the march in Santa Clara.
Looking for trends to emerge from the World Cup so far? How about a return to the importance of crossing.
Football is cyclical. Trends come and go. After the rise of inverted wingers, who tend to cut in and shoot, are we seeing the return of traditional wingers – those wide players who hug the touchline and send in crosses on their stronger foot?
We are seeing a lot of goals scored from deliveries into the box from out wide. In the first two rounds of games, 29 of the 48 teams at the tournament scored at least one goal within five seconds of a cross into the box.
The conclusion of Group E is another opportunity to fire up Bracketology. Germany v France in the round of 16 looks very tasty.
“Greetings Jonathan,” welcome on board Andrew Hawkins, and may the football gods furnish you with a fresh tub of yeast extract as a prize of the first email of the day.
“This time last week I was in sunny Seattle. Now, working away in soggy Sydney wishing I was in San Francisco. Last Friday was one of the best days of my life, even the result couldn’t ruin it. The atmosphere was phenomenal, the march to the stadium electric, us Aussies may not have matched the Americans on the pitch but we equalled their patriotism levels – quite some feat. Hopefully, the Socceroos’ first half is not as lethargic as last week – no point leaving anything to chance.”
Elsewhere in Group E, Ivory Coast did enough to finish second and end Curacao’s fairytale.
An underwhelming 2-0 victory, courtesy of Nicolas Pépé’s double, put the Ivorians through to the last 32 as group runners-up. But it was an imprecise contest here in Philadelphia, the cradle of American democracy – such as it is. All the same, a spirited Curaçao leave their first World Cup.
The most consequential match of the day so far has seen Ecuador storm back to defeat the previously unbeaten Germans and snatch their place in the round of 32.
Despite a flat start to their World Cup campaign, there was a genuine belief that an upset against a full-strength Germany was possible. They had no other choice: having been shut out by Eloy Room’s heroics for Curaçao, Sebastián Beccacece’s side had to win to progress. Gonzalo Plata’s 77th-minute strike sparked wild and emotional celebrations, assuring their place in the last 32 as a best third-placed team – and a first knockout match since 2006.
Let’s start the roundup with the Pod Squad dealing with a bumper six-game matchday, one dominated by Scotland’s hammering by Brazil.
Feel free to keep me company by emailing your thoughts about today’s match, and anything related to the World Cup to jonathan.howcroft.freelance@theguardian.com.
Preamble
Jonathan Howcroft
Hello everybody and welcome to live coverage of match 60 of the 2026 World Cup between Paraguay and Australia. Kick-off at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium is 7pm local time (10pm EDT / 3am BST / 12pm AEST).
It all comes down to this in Group D.
The USA are through as group winners. Turkey are on their way home in last place. In between, Australia and Paraguay are jostling for second place, and the prize of guaranteed qualification to the knockout phase, or third place, and an anxious wait to see how the chips fall elsewhere.
An Australia win guarantees the Socceroos a round of 32 clash in Dallas, most likely against Egypt or Iran (but possibly Belgium or New Zealand). It also pushes Paraguay close to elimination with their poor goal difference and disciplinary record counting heavily against them in the battle to be ranked one of the eight best third-place teams.
A Paraguay win guarantees them that trip to Texas, but as long as Australia don’t lose by more than one goal, they should also be confident of continued participation, only without immediate confirmation.
A draw suits both sides with Australia qualifying in second, Paraguay third.
The incentives for both teams to secure only a draw suggest this evening’s spectacle may not be one for fans of open attacking football. Neither coach will publicly admit it, of course (and there will be no hint of collusion) but it’s human nature to pursue loss aversion.
When the draw was made both these teams would have expected to be in a scrap for third place at best, each will be delighted with their position at kick-off and it would be an enormous surprise if either put that status in jeopardy by playing anything other than conservatively.
I’ll be back shortly with team news and a roundup of all the matchday action so far. In the meantime you can keep an eye on the conclusion of Group F, with the Netherlands, Japan, and Sweden, jostling for to spot.
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