NASCAR has a new playoff system in 2026. It’s back to the Chase.
Instead of win-and-in, it’s the top-16 drivers in the regular-season standings that will make the 10-race Chase, which will be a mini-season of its own with no eliminations.
The 16 drivers will have their points reset for the start of the final 10-race stretch with the regular-season champion at 2,100 points, second place at 2,075, third place at 2,065, fourth place at 2,060 and so on by five-point increments with 16th reset to 2,000.
Eight races remain in the regular season: Chicagoland, Atlanta, North Wilkesboro, Indianapolis, Iowa, Richmond, New Hampshire and Daytona.
So who is in and who is out?
Here’s a look:
While Denny Hamlin has four wins on the season, he hasn’t yet clinched a spot in The Chase.
Clinched
No driver has clinched a spot.
In Good Shape
There are eight drivers who are 120 points or more above the cutline, and they would have to lose an average of 15 points a race to fall out. There appears to be enough of a buffer that they should feel good even with a DNF or two.
— Denny Hamlin (+330 on the cutoff): The Joe Gibbs Racing driver should clinch in the next few weeks.
— Tyler Reddick (+329 on the cutoff): The 23XI driver should also clinch in the next few weeks.
— Ryan Blaney (+226): The Team Penske driver has just one win but his 13 top 10s lead the series.
— Ty Gibbs (+200): The JGR driver earned his first career Cup victory this year and has seven top fives. Four DNFs are the only thing holding him back in the standings.
— Kyle Larson (+182): The Hendrick Motorsports driver and defending series champion leads all drivers with 152 stage points this year.
Kyle Larson doesn’t have a win on the season but does lead in stage points.
— Chase Elliott (+165): The Hendrick driver has enjoyed his best start to a season with two victories already.
— Chris Buescher (+129): The RFK Racing driver doesn’t have a race win or a stage win all year, but he has consistent finishes.
— Carson Hocevar (+120): The Spire driver has a win this year with four top fives, seven top 10s and no DNFs.
On The Bubble
One or two good or bad races could change who is in and who is out, especially if any drivers below the bubble win a race or two. With 76 points being the most available in a race, I’d say right now any driver 100 points above or below is on the bubble.
— Daniel Suárez (+95): The Spire Motorsports driver might be the biggest surprise of this group. He did go from 116 points up to 95 points ahead of the outline after Sonoma, so he drops to “bubble” status.
— Christopher Bell (+83): The JGR driver is feeling the pain of a broken left wrist. But he went from 60 points above the cutoff to 83 after Sonoma, so he’s feeling much better.
— Chase Briscoe (+79): The JGR driver had a rough start to the year and has yet to win a race or a stage. He is good under pressure, but this is harder than it should be for him.
— William Byron (+57): The Hendrick driver has had an uncharacteristically inconsistent season and still seeks his first win.
— Bubba Wallace (+55): The 23XI driver had a few bad races amid posting a pair of runner-up finishes in the last four events. A couple more of those and he should be good. But he’s still perilously close to the cut.
— Shane van Gisbergen (+36): The Trackhouse Racing driver won at Sonoma to go from five points below the cut to 36 points ahead. Now it’s time to race for points over the next eight races. That could be tough.
SVG is fresh off a victory at Sonoma.
— Ryan Preece (+13): The RFK driver is a fighter and likely has a chip on his shoulder after a 25-point penalty earlier this year for intentionally wrecking Ty Gibbs.
— Austin Cindric (+12): The Team Penske driver likely expected to not be on the bubble, but seeing teammate Joey Logano below the cutline is a sign that the organization has work to do.
— Erik Jones (-12): The Legacy Motor Club driver has surged as of late but a rough Sonoma dropped him back below the cutline. He has some work to do.
— Brad Keselowski (-25): The RFK driver, the 2012 Cup champion, was up 55 points on the cutline five races ago. He could rally quickly, but he’s going to have to get going.
— AJ Allmendinger (-26): The fact he lost five points to the cutoff at Sonoma isn’t a good sign — it means Shane van Gisbergen’s win shifted where the cutoff would sit.
— Joey Logano (-31): The Team Penske driver, a three-time Cup champion, should never be counted out.
— Michael McDowell (-32): The Spire Motorsports driver didn’t take enough advantage of the last road-course race (Sonoma). He can’t have a bad finish the rest of the way and that still might not be enough.
— Ross Chastain (-45): The Trackhouse driver had back-to-back top 10s entering Sonoma. He has shown more speed in recent weeks, but likely will need to find even more over the last eight races.
Ross Chastain has been showing improvement of late.
— Zane Smith (-61): The Front Row driver will need to rattle off some top-five finishes to get back in the mix.
— Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-72): The Hyak Motorsports driver’s best hope might be to move up enough that, if he can win at Daytona, it could vault him into the Chase.
— Riley Herbst (-84): The 23XI driver lost 26 points to the outline at Sonoma and now has even a bigger hill to climb.
— Todd Gilliland (-87): The FRM driver has been just a little too inconsistent this year.
— John Hunter Nemechek (-91): The Legacy driver could ride the wave of improvement in the Legacy cars, but it will be a tall task.
Little Or No Chance
No one has been eliminated from contention yet, but these eight drivers appear too far back to have even a remote chance to rally.
— Austin Dillon (-121): The Richard Childress Racing driver will be a favorite at Richmond and could win one of the drafting-style races at Atlanta or Daytona. But even a win or two doesn’t appear will be enough.
— Alex Bowman (-170): The Hendrick driver missed four races because of vertigo earlier this year. He has two top-five finishes and just one additional top-10 finish.
— Noah Gragson (-180): The FRM driver has shown speed at times but the finishes aren’t there.
— Josh Berry (-184): The Wood Brothers driver already knows he won’t be back next season, and it could be a tough final half of 2026.
Josh Berry won’t return to his Wood Brothers car next season.
— Cole Custer (-190): The Haas Factory Team driver still seeks his first top 10.
— Ty Dillon (-197): The Kaulig driver still seeks his first top 10 of the season.
— Connor Zilisch (-203): The Trackhouse rookie has had a miserable season, having failed to finish six of the 17 races.
— Cody Ware (-245): The Rick Ware Racing driver also seeks his first top 10 of the year.
O’Reilly Series:
Five races remain in the regular season and 12 will advance. Clinched: Justin Allgaier.
Truck Series:
Five races remain in the regular season and 10 advance. Clinched: None.
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